Spot rates on the Transpacific remain near or below carrier break-even levels, prompting aggressive blank sailings to stabilize pricing. February saw more than 100 cancelled voyages across Asia to U.S. lanes, marking one of the most significant post-Lunar New Year capacity adjustments in recent years.
The global freight market began 2026 with a brief surge in ocean freight rates following a General Rate Increase (GRI). Rates climbed more than 20 percent in a single week, but the increase quickly unraveled as carriers faced resistance from the market and struggled to secure bookings at higher levels.
December demand is expected to be the lowest since mid-2023 as tariff uncertainty keeps imports muted and inventories remain well stocked from earlier front-loading. Carriers are managing capacity with blank sailings across PSW, PNW, and USEC lanes to support January GRIs, while congestion persists in key Asia ports and airfreight rates rise on strong e-commerce volumes.
Trans-Pacific rates fluctuate as GRIs, easing USWC rollovers, blank sailings, and new U.S.–China trade talks shape the November 2025 freight market.
The Trans-Pacific freight market faces mounting volatility as new GRIs take effect and a proposed 100% U.S. import tariff on Chinese goods looms. Carriers are blanking 14% of capacity while pre-tariff bookings surge, creating port congestion and schedule disruptions. New U.S. port fees on Chinese vessels and China’s retaliatory measures add further complexity heading into Q4.
Carriers drove rates higher this month with GRIs up $800–$900/FEU, pushing Asia–USWC spot rates up nearly 21% week-over-week. Demand remains weak, with U.S. bookings down 20%, while Golden Week blank sailings and growing congestion at Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao are tightening space further.
Meanwhile, alliances are slashing October capacity, and the USTR extended Section 301 tariff exclusions through Nov 2025—offering importers some relief amid ongoing volatility.
The Transpacific shipping market remains soft, with spot rates down 3.3% and no peak season in sight. New U.S. tariffs, tropical storm delays in China, and slowing bookings are shaping the months ahead. Capacity utilization has dropped to its lowest since April, while a brief September surge is possible before China’s Golden Week shutdowns.
The ocean freight market has flipped from oversupply to a severe capacity crunch as Transpacific demand surges. With bookings up over 50% and new GRIs taking effect June 1, rates are climbing fast. A massive backlog in China, early peak season, and port congestion risks are creating major challenges for importers. This May 2025 update covers everything you need to know, including new carrier services, premium rate trends, and planning tips ahead of the August tariff deadline.