This month:
- New General Rate Increases (GRIs) take effect October 15, with another scheduled for November 1.
- 14% of Trans-Pacific capacity now blanked as carriers fight falling spot rates.
- 100% import tariff on Chinese goods proposed for November 1, covering electronics, machinery, and consumer goods.
- Pre-tariff booking surge causes congestion and vessel schedule disruptions.
- New U.S. port fees on Chinese-built or operated vessels began October 14, increasing carrier costs by $300–$600 per container.
- China retaliates with similar port fees on U.S.-linked vessels.
- Market uncertainty remains high as tariff implementation details are still evolving.
Download the October 2025 Freight Market Update [PDF]
Market Conditions
The Trans-Pacific Ocean freight market remains volatile as carriers attempt to stabilize falling spot rates. A new General Rate Increase (GRI) took effect on October 15, with another round planned for November 1, 2025.
Carriers are aggressively deploying blank sailings, now estimated to account for 14% of total capacity on both the U.S. West Coast (USWC) and East Coast (USEC) lanes. These capacity reductions are part of ongoing efforts to counter declining spot rates and maintain some pricing stability.
A major factor influencing market sentiment is the announcement of a 100% import tariff on Chinese goods, slated for November 1, 2025. The measure—retaliation for China’s rare earth export controls—covers a wide range of imports, including electronics, machinery, and consumer goods.
Surge in Pre-Tariff Bookings
Importers have accelerated shipments to get ahead of the potential 100% tariff. This front-loading has led to a surge in bookings, creating freight demand spikes and port congestion at major U.S. gateways.
Some carriers have begun omitting port calls or rerouting vessels to avoid heavy delays, resulting in increased last-minute schedule changes.
However, the policy remains uncertain—the tariff is not yet officially implemented, and details could change depending on ongoing diplomatic talks between the U.S. and China. The situation continues to evolve and will be closely watched by importers and shippers through Q4 2025.
U.S. Port Fees (Effective October 14, 2025)
New U.S. Customs port fees on vessels built in or operated by Chinese companies took effect on October 14, adding further cost pressures to ocean carriers.
Fee Structure
1. Chinese-Owned or -Operated Vessels
- Fee: $50 per net ton in 2025
- Escalates annually to $140 per net ton by April 17, 2028
- Capped at five voyages per year per vessel
2. Chinese-Built Vessels
- Fee: Greater of $18 per net ton or $120 per container discharged
- Also capped at five voyages per fiscal year
Estimated Cost Impact
- Per Container: $300–$600 additional cost for affected vessels
- Per Voyage:
- $1.2 million in 2025
- $2.5 million by 2028
Chinese carriers COSCO and OOCL are expected to absorb these fees, potentially supported by Beijing subsidies, rather than passing them directly to customers.
China’s Retaliatory Measures
DIn response, China has imposed port fees on U.S.-linked vessels, mirroring the U.S. policy. These new costs add another layer of complexity to Trans-Pacific operations, particularly for carriers operating Chinese-built or -owned tonnage.
The combination of new tariffs, retaliatory fees, and ongoing blank sailings is creating significant planning challenges for shippers and BCOs (Beneficial Cargo Owners). With the Chinese New Year cargo rush approaching, the supply chain outlook remains uncertain, and volatility is expected to continue into early 2026.
Need help navigating these shifts or optimizing your freight strategy? Contact J.M. Rodgers for expert support.
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