Ocean Freight Market Update – May 2025

1. Demand Surge Disrupts Transpacific Trade

A sharp rebound in import demand across the Transpacific has overwhelmed current ocean freight capacity. Week-over-week booking volumes are up by over 50%, and some ports are seeing increases above 100%.

Previously, many ocean carriers withdrew capacity from this lane in response to reciprocal tariffs, shifting assets to other trade routes. As a result, the Transpacific trade is now critically under-served, and carriers are fully booked through late May and early June. Space is limited, and many bookings are now subject to rollovers or last-minute cancellations.

2. Massive Cargo Backlog in China

According to Sea-Intelligence, there are between 180,000 TEUs (based on 25% of canceled bookings) and 540,000 TEUs (based on 55%) of cargo in China that has already been produced or is sitting in warehouses ready to ship.

This backlog forms an immense “cargo pool” that must be distributed over the next six weeks or longer. The pressure is compounded by the upcoming expiration of the 90-day tariff reprieve on Chinese goods, set to end August 14, 2025. Many exporters are rushing to ship goods before this deadline, and volumes are expected to rise further into mid-June and July.

3. General Rate Increase (GRI) and Freight Rate Surge

To address the imbalance between demand and capacity, carriers have announced a General Rate Increase (GRI) effective June 1, 2025, on all shipments from Asia and the Indian Subcontinent to the U.S. and Canada.

Post-GRI Rate Estimates:

• $6,000–$6,500 to the U.S. West Coast (USWC)
• $7,000–$7,500 to the U.S. East Coast (USEC)
• $7,300–$7,500 to Gulf ports

Carriers are also offering Premium Rate options for guaranteed space, and with continued growth in volumes, further rate increases are likely in the weeks ahead.

4. Capacity Restoration & Extra Loader Announcements

Carriers are working to reintroduce suspended services and add extra loaders, but relief is limited in the short term. The early arrival of peak season makes it critical for shippers to book cargo 4–6 weeks in advance.

New and Resumed Services Include:

• Premier Alliance (ONE/YML/HMM):
  Launching the PS5 service with 6,500 TEU vessels.
  • First sailing: YM Mobility, ETA Qingdao June 5
  • Port rotation: Qingdao – Ningbo – Long Beach – Oakland
• ZIM:
  Resuming the ZX2 (PSW) service, suspended since Week 17.
  • First sailing: Colorado V.8E
  • ETA Shanghai: May 26 | Los Angeles: June 10
• Gemini Cooperation (Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd):
  Upsizing vessels after April scale-down to meet growing demand.
• KMTC Line (South Korea):
  Joining SeaLead and TS Line on the AWC (Asia-USWC) service.
  • New branding: Asia-Pacific Express (APX)
  • Launch: June 17
  • Vessels upgraded to 6,000–10,000 TEUs capacity

5. Port Congestion Concerns Intensify

As shipping capacity returns, U.S. ports — particularly on the West Coast — are facing growing congestion risks. Key issues include:

• Surge in inbound volumes
• Shortages of empty containers
• Chassis availability issues

Industry experts note that U.S. West Coast ports have historically struggled with volume spikes, and cargo slowdowns are likely through the summer months unless relief measures are implemented quickly.6

6. Recommendations for Shippers

To navigate the current volatility, importers and exporters should:

• Book space early: Secure space at least 4–6 weeks in advance
• Consider premium options: Evaluate guaranteed-space programs where possible
• Prepare for delays: Factor in congestion and chassis shortages at destination ports
• Ship ahead of the tariff deadline: Move freight before August 14 if impacted

Want help navigating these shifts or optimizing your freight strategy? Contact J.M. Rodgers for expert support.