This Month:
- Severe USWC rollovers expected to ease in weeks 45–46, with space normalizing from week 47.
- Post–Nov 1 GRI rate bump was short-lived: USEC spot rates still declining; USWC steady with mixed carrier signals.
- New GRI effective Nov 15, 2025 for all U.S. and Canada destinations.
- Blank sailings from weeks 40–44 into November cut capacity and hurt schedule reliability.
- USWC: longer vessel waits and terminal dwell; USEC: moderate but rising congestion tied to rail bottlenecks and seasonal volumes.
- U.S.–China leaders announced preliminary deals (rare earths, fentanyl tariff cut, one-year port-fee postponement), but analysts flag limited scope; reciprocal tariffs remain.
- U.S. government shutdown (since Oct 1) reaches Day 36; CBP fully operational, but air cargo delays growing at JFK, LAX, and ORD.
Market Conditions & Rate Trends
The severe rollover on USWC services is projected to ease by weeks 45–46, with space availability returning to normal from week 47. The post–Nov 1 GRI rate lift has proven short-lived: USEC spot rates continue to fall, while USWC rates held steady last week amid mixed carrier guidance. With U.S.–China tensions easing, China-origin demand is expected to slow further in Q4, adding downward pressure on USWC rates.
Trans-Pacific carriers have filed another GRI effective November 15, 2025, covering all U.S. and Canada destinations, reflecting continued upward pressure attempts across major lanes.
Capacity & Blank Sailings
Blank sailings by major alliances from weeks 40–44 and into November have reduced capacity and weakened schedule reliability. On the USWC, vessel waiting times have increased and terminals report longer container dwell due to uneven cargo flow. For the USEC, congestion is moderate but rising, with delays linked to inland rail bottlenecks and seasonal volumes.
Trade Agreements
Following last week’s meeting in Korea, U.S. and Chinese presidents reached preliminary agreements including a rare earth arrangement, a fentanyl tariff reduction from 20% to 10%, and a one-year postponement of mutual port fees. Analysts caution these are subject to revision and lack broad scope. Sea-Intelligence notes that reciprocal tariffs remain in effect, characterizing the moves as piecemeal, unlike the broader exemptions granted to Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, and Malaysia across hundreds of commodities.
U.S. Government Shutdown
The federal shutdown that began October 1 has reached Day 36 with no resolution in sight, likely delaying implementation of any new trade agreements. USCBP remains fully operational as an essential service. Cargo clearance, inspections, and tariff collection continue. However, air cargo imports face mounting delays at JFK, LAX, and ORD amid strained aviation services and staffing shortages.
Recommendations
- Book early to secure space, especially through weeks 45–47 and ahead of the Nov 15 GRI.
- Use premium services for high-value or time-sensitive cargo to ensure priority handling.
- Add buffer time for customs processing and potential flight delays.
- Tighten documentation and submit complete filings early with J.M. Rodgers to avoid preventable holds.
- Monitor rates around the Nov 15 GRI and align RFQs and PO releases with potential short-term volatility.
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