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This week:

  • US retailers forecast monthly containerized imports below 2 million TEUs through February 
  • As import volumes trend down, US inland trucking capacity tightens and spot rates increase
  • In response to US charges, China’s Ministry of Transport announces plans for new port fees
  • Striking Canada Post workers swap nationwide halt for rotating stoppages, contract talks stall

US Container Imports Expected to Take Significant Dip Through February

A new report projects that monthly US containerized imports will fall below 2 million TEUs and face year-over-year deficits through at least February 2026. Retailers attribute the slowdown to an early peak season, which resulted from extended frontloading ahead of new tariffs.

The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT) report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates forecasts an average monthly decline of nearly 16% year-over-year from October through February.

“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said in the GPT report. 

Gold added that most retailers are now well-stocked for the holidays and are working to “shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”

If it is accurate, the October GPT forecast of 1.97 million TEUs would mark the first time imports have been under the 2 million TEU mark since June. The report predicts 1.75 million TEUs for November and 1.72 million for December. Following a slight uptick to 1.87 million TEUs for January 2026, the forecast dips back to 1.77 million for February.

For the full year of 2025, the latest GPT forecasts total imports to reach 24.79 million TEUs, a 2.9% decrease from 2024.

Falling Imports Tighten US Inland Trucking Capacity, Push Spot Rates Higher

The decline in US imports is tightening outbound truckload capacity in several key inland markets, fueling a seasonal rise in spot rates as the traditional fall peak shipping season gets underway.

In an industry roundup published in the Journal of Commerce (JoC) on Friday, Senior Editor William B. Cassidy said that fewer container imports mean fewer trucks are making deliveries from major seaports. As a result, there is a shortage of available trucks in inland hubs looking for return loads.

Cassidy described the situation as a market imbalance not seen since the early days of the pandemic in 2020. The impact is most visible in port-dependent freight lanes, and these markets are seeing significant rate spikes

For example, DAT Freight & Analytics reports that a drop in loads from Los Angeles led to a 45% surge in outbound load posts from Las Vegas as shippers searched for capacity. The average spot rate from Las Vegas to Los Angeles jumped from $1.96 per mile last month to $2.15 per mile.

Meanwhile, the average spot rate from Stockton, Calif., to Los Angeles has surged to $2.45 per mile this week, up from a September average of $1.74 per mile. In Chicago, overall spot loads jumped 20% last week, pushing average outbound rates up 8 cents to $2.20 per mile, excluding fuel surcharges.

“We’re seeing an imbalance in all those markets that need to get freight back to Los Angeles,” said Dean Croke, DAT’s principal analyst. “This is due to the falloff of imports in LA.”

The trend is also pushing average rates higher on a national level. The US average dry-van spot rate rose 3 cents to $1.70 per mile in the week ending October 4, which is 5 cents higher than a year ago.

Given the NRF’s prediction that US imports will remain below 2 million TEUs for at least the next five months, Croke said the trucking capacity issues are likely to persist. “Normally, markets tend to equalize, but I don’t know how long this will take before it balances out,” Croke said. 

 

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China Announces It Will Impose Retaliatory Port Fees on US-Linked Vessels

China announced Friday it will implement new port fees targeting ships owned or operated by US companies, a direct retaliation to a similar measure from the White House. 

In a public statement, China’s Ministry of Transport said the fees will take effect this Tuesday, October 14, the same day substantial US port fees on Chinese vessels are set to begin. 

The ministry characterizes the US policy as an “unreasonable suppression of China’s maritime industry” that “seriously violates the relevant principles of international trade.” A spokesperson urged the White House to “immediately correct its wrong practices.”

China’s new fees will apply to US-flagged ships, as well as those built by or operated by American companies. Vessels where US shareholders hold a stake of over 25% will also be subject to the fees. 

The charge starts at 400 renminbi ($56) per net ton and is scheduled to increase annually, reaching $157 per net ton by 2028. The fee will only be collected at the first Chinese port of call during a single voyage and is capped at five voyages per year for any individual ship.

For comparison, the US fees targeting Chinese vessels include a charge of $50 per net ton plus the greater of either $18 per net ton or $120 per container discharged.

Canada Post Workers Shift Strike Tactics From Full Halt to Rotating Stoppages

The union representing Canada Post workers has scaled back its strike tactics from a complete nationwide halt to a series of rotating work stoppages. The move allows Canada’s national carrier to resume operations this week, though significant service delays are still expected.

The Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) announced a full nationwide work stoppage on September 25, which effectively shut down Canada Post’s entire network of mail and parcel delivery services. The union’s president, Jan Simpson, said the shift to rotating strikes allows CUPW to continue protesting the government’s offers while resuming service to customers.

A press release issued by Canada Post confirmed that postal services will gradually return this week. However, the carrier has suspended all service guarantees and advised customers to anticipate ongoing delays as the rotating strikes will continue to disrupt specific locations and operational hubs.

The change in strike tactics comes as contract negotiations between the two sides remain stalled. Canada Post recently presented offers that the union rejected as “insulting.” 

According to Canada Post, the proposals no longer include a signing bonus due to the carrier’s “deteriorating financial situation” and introduce a formal layoff process for when workforce reductions through attrition are insufficient. CUPW contends the government has failed to address its concerns about wages and job security.