This week:
- President Trump announces 50% tariff rate on US imports from the EU, set to start on July 9
- Canada Post workers without a master contract, choose nationwide overtime ban over strike
- US LTL pricing holds steady at pandemic-era high, but truckload rates still in post-Yellow slump
- US tariffs finally slow down China-to-US eCommerce boom, along with overall air cargo volumes
Trump Announces 50% Tariff on US Imports From EU Arriving on July 9
President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he will implement a 50% tariff on all imports from the European Union. Trump initially said the new import duties would become effective on June 1, but over the weekend, he announced he had moved the start date to July 9.
The President said the blanket tariffs were in response to stalled trade talks between the US and the EU. Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariff policy on April 2, which aims to neutralize trade imbalances between the US and its global partners. Since then, the Trump administration has announced trade deals with China, the United Kingdom, and other countries that saw the US lower its tariff rates.
Multiple news outlets have reported that the EU has recently submitted new proposals in the ongoing trade talks. However, Trump has expressed frustration with the negotiations. In social media posts and press conferences, the President criticized trade barriers such as value-added taxes (VAT), which he claims contribute to a “totally unacceptable” trade deficit between the US and the EU.
According to United States International Trade Commission data, the US trade deficit with the EU reached $236 billion in 2024.
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Canada Post Workers Choose Overtime Ban Over Strike in Contract Stalemate
According to an announcement from the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW), Canada Post workers initiated a nationwide overtime ban effective Friday. This action follows the expiration of labor contracts for over 50,000 employees and months of unsuccessful negotiations between the union and the national postal carrier.
The CUPW workers were widely expected to go on strike if the two sides didn’t reach an agreement by the May 22 contract expiration date. Even though that date passed with no deal, Jan Simpson, CUPW’s national president, said that the union chose an overtime ban rather than a complete work stoppage “to minimize disruptions to the public, and lost days to members.”
The CUPW issued strike notices to Canada Post early last week without announcing the actions it would take. At that time, Canada Post advised customers to prepare for a national disruption or rotating strikes. The union has not specified the duration of the overtime ban and is not ruling out further strike actions.
Negotiations on a new master contract have seemingly been stalled for months. The key sticking point is staffing for weekend delivery. Canada Post has said it prefers to hire new staff for weekend deliveries, while the CUPW insists its members should get to cover the extra work.
US LTL Pricing Holds Steady at Record High as Truckload Rates Slump
Pricing in the US less-than-truckload (LTL) sector has stabilized, remaining at its highest recorded level, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures. However, rates in the full truckload market continue to languish in a slump that began in 2023.
The BLS’s April long-distance LTL producer price index (PPI) now stands at 259, a figure that has held constant since February. This matches LTL’s pandemic-era peak in June 2022. The BLS uses pricing data from December 2003 as its baseline (100) for calculating both LTL and truckload PPIs.
The April LTL PPI reading is a 4.9% increase compared to a year ago. In addition, it is 12.1% higher than in July 2023, when the bankruptcy of Yellow triggered a sustained climb in LTL pricing over the following 22 months.
The current long-distance truckload PPI of 175.2 marks a decline of slightly less than one percentage point from March. The April figure is down 2.6% from January and 24.6% from truckload’s pandemic-era peak in May 2022
“The basic explanation for the LTL/truckload divergence is capacity,” William B. Cassidy, a senior editor for the Journal of Commerce (JoC), said in an industry roundup published last week. “The loss of Yellow (in 2023) put more than 300 LTL terminals on the market; not all of them have been sold or returned to service.”
Overall Air Cargo Down as Tariffs Finally Slow China-US eCommerce Boom
The Trump administration’s temporary lowering of tariffs on imports from China has left ocean carriers scrambling for capacity. However, US tariff policy has finally slowed the long-running China-to-US eCommerce boom and overall general air cargo volumes, according to Greg Knowles, a senior editor for the JoC.
“Airlines prioritized surging eCommerce shipments on trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes over the past few years at the expense of general air freight,” Knowles said in an editorial published Friday. “But as US tariffs curb low-value imports from China, carriers are finding traditional markets have also declined.”
In addition, these markets have also been eroded by various economic and geopolitical factors, according to Martin Habisreitinger, COO of air freight at Hellmann Worldwide Logistics.
“The surge in eCommerce, particularly during the pandemic, created an unprecedented demand on specific routes, especially trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe,” Habisreitinger said. “Airlines, facing capacity constraints and driven by yield management strategies, naturally prioritized this high-volume, often higher-paying segment. This prioritization, coupled with port congestion and supply chain disruptions, sometimes led to capacity challenges for traditional cargo shippers.”
Air cargo enjoyed a record year in 2024 with a 12% growth in global volume, primarily driven by Chinese eCommerce business. However, the May 2 elimination of the US de minimis duty exemption for low-value shipments from China has caused a notable drop in air cargo demand on trans-Pacific routes.
