This week:
- US retailers increase summer import projections while reciprocal tariff policy is on pause
- Congress mulls bills concerning China’s maritime influence, administration approves port projects
- Canadian government job minister orders Canada Post and CUPW to vote on latest contract offers
- Trans-Pacific ocean spot rates decline on US West Coast but continue to increase on East Coast
US Retailers Revise Import Forecasts Upward Amid Reciprocal Tariff Pause
US retailers have significantly increased their import projections for the summer months, capitalizing on a temporary pause in the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff policy.
The June edition of the Global Port Tracker (GPT) by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates shows that cargo imports in July are now anticipated to be 20% higher than what was forecasted a month earlier. This marks the first upward revision in import projections since February, when President Donald Trump announced the first round of new tariffs on products from China and other US trading partners.
In April, Trump unveiled his reciprocal tariff policy, which aims to neutralize US trade deficits around the world. Reciprocal tariffs on imports from China soon reached 145%, although the current pause on the policy has lowered the rate to 30% until August 14. Other Trump tariffs are suspended until July 9, which has contributed to the current increase in imports.
“Tariff reductions will lead to a surge in imports in June through August as importers take advantage of the 90-day tariff pauses,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, in the June GPT report.
The updated forecast predicts July imports to reach 2.13 million TEUs, a 20.3% increase from the May edition of the GPT report. August is expected to see 1.98 million TEUs, an 8.8% rise from May’s projection
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Bills Target China’s Maritime Influence as Trump Admin Greenlights Port Projects
The US Congress is advancing legislation aimed at diminishing China’s influence over American ports. In a separate but related development, the Trump administration announced it is accelerating port and infrastructure projects by cutting regulatory hurdles implemented under the previous administration.
Last week, the House of Representatives passed three bills aimed at amending US shipping laws. The legislation will now move to the Senate for consideration.
One of the bills, the Maritime Supply Chain Security Act, would authorize the use of funds from the Maritime Administration’s Port Infrastructure Development Program (PIDP) to replace port cranes and software originating from China.
Another bill, the Secure Our Ports Act, seeks to prohibit entities connected to China, Russia, North Korea, or Iran from leasing or operating facilities at American ports. The third piece of legislation, the American Cargo for American Ships Act, would mandate that materials for Department of Transportation (DOT) projects be transported on US commercial vessels.
Meanwhile, the DOT announced on Tuesday that it had greenlit 76 infrastructure projects that had been approved for grants under the Biden administration but were never executed. A DOT statement said the agency had “ripped out burdensome” requirements, allowing these projects to proceed. To date, the agency has cleared approximately one-third of the 3,200 projects left pending by the previous administration.
Government Orders Vote on Canada Post Offers in Bid to End Contract Stalemate
The Canadian government has intervened in the protracted contract dispute between Canada Post and the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW). The nation’s postal workers have been without a contract since last month and have implemented an overtime ban until the stalemate is resolved.
On Thursday, Patty Hajdu, the government’s Minister of Jobs and Families, ordered a vote on Canada Post’s latest offers.
“After 18 months of negotiation, over 200 meetings…and ongoing strain placed on Canada’s small business and communities, it is in the public interest that the membership of CUPW has the opportunity to vote on Canada Post’s last offers,” Minister Hajdu said.
Canada Post and the CUPW recently asked the government to facilitate an arbitration process to help break a long-running deadlock in negotiations. However, the order to vote was met with starkly different reactions from both sides.
“Forced deals will not achieve labor peace,” the CUPW said in a statement released to the media. The union says it will urge its members to vote “no” on the offers, which it considers inadequate on key issues like pay increases and staffing for weekend deliveries.
Meanwhile, Canada Post praised Minister Hajdu’s order. In its own statement, the postal carrier said, “The parties remain at a major impasse” and that a vote will help revive negotiations. Talks ground to a halt after Canada Post presented what it termed its “final offers” in late May. The CUPW declined those offers but failed to submit any counter-proposals.
The ongoing labor uncertainty has had a significant impact on Canada Post. As shippers divert their parcels to other companies, the national carrier said on May 28 that its delivered parcel volumes had plunged by 65% year-over-year.
Trans-Pac Spot Rates Diverge as West Coast Prices Down, East Coast Up
Spot ocean rates for shipping from Asia to the United States show a significant split in the latest data from the analytics firm Platts. Thanks to an influx of capacity, prices to the US West Coast are headed downward, while rates to the East Coast continue to rise.
As of June 9, the spot rate per FEU to the West Coast dropped by 6% to $5,700. In contrast, the rate to the East Coast increased by 4%, reaching $7,400 per FEU.
The $1,700 price gap between the two coasts is the largest variance since late January. Industry observers say the divergence started after ocean carriers began redirecting vessels to the Asia-US West Coast routes. This move was initially made to capitalize on a surge in demand following the Trump administration’s pause of its reciprocal tariffs against China on May 12.
“The rates for cargo coming into the Pacific Southwest are going down, but pricing to the US East Coast is actually going up,” Stephen A. Nothdurft, vice president of sales for North America at MOL Consolidation Services, told the Journal of Commerce. “It’s due to all of these extra-loaders and services returning into rotation (to the Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex).”
Nothdurft said this shift in capacity accounts for the difference in spot rates between the coasts. “It’s a bit of an indication that the so-called ‘normal’ differential of $1,000 is all really based on supply and demand,” he added.
