This week:
- Analysts say the true impact of US tariffs is only now being felt on the trans-Pacific routes
- Continued tariff uncertainty and the end of frontloading slow down US-Mexico truck trade
- US de minimis exemption officially ends Friday, businesses scramble to change strategies
- New technology standard aims to put an end to surprise LTL fees after recent reclassification
True Impact of US Tariffs Only Now Being Felt Across the Trans-Pacific
The true economic impact of US tariffs on Chinese goods is only now being felt across the trans-Pacific, according to a recent Journal of Commerce (JoC) market analysis. Mark Szakonyi, the JoC’s executive editor, reports that the rush by companies earlier this year to frontload shipments and beat tariff deadlines has ended, and what remains is a sharp downturn in demand.
US retailers, facing a slowing economy and higher import costs, are significantly cutting back orders for the rest of the year, Szakonyi said. The Global Port Tracker (GPT), which predicted a 5.8% year-over-year import increase for August, now forecasts volumes from September through December to plummet by at least 20% each month compared to the same period in 2024.
The slowdown is causing some disruption at US ports, as containers pile up due to slower pickups. According to data from GoComet, the average container dwell time increased to 8.1 days in July, more than double the 3.8 days recorded in January. This has led to soaring demurrage and storage fees for US importers. Szakonyi says small and medium-sized businesses are being hit hardest, with some forced to slow or halt orders altogether.
The financial pressure is now being passed on to consumers. A National Federation of Independent Businesses index shows a growing number of small businesses plan to raise prices. Even major retailers like Home Depot, the second-largest importer in the US, have reversed an earlier promise and are now increasing prices to offset tariff costs.
Industry observers report that the situation has completely shifted the normal shipping seasons. In the most extreme cases, importers are abandoning containers of lower-value goods entirely, as the tariff costs now exceed the value of the goods themselves. “We’re feeling the pinch,” one forwarding executive told the JoC, warning, “I think we’ve got a couple rough months ahead.”
US-Mexico Truck Trade Stalls Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Weak Demand
The US-Mexico trucking market has been hindered by tariffs and lowered demand, according to William B. Cassidy, a senior editor for the JoC.
In an industry roundup published Friday, Cassidy said cross-border truck trade has stagnated amid continued uncertainty about US tariffs on Mexican goods and the end of the frontloading surges that took place earlier this year.
Mexico-to-US truck crossings were nearly flat in July, climbing just 0.3% year-over-year. This follows a 2.2% decline in the second quarter. The latest US Bureau of Transportation Statistics data indicates that the market slowdown is most noticeable at the largest points of entry. The top three crossings — Laredo, El Paso, and Otay Mesa — saw their combined northbound truck traffic fall 3.2% in July compared to last year.
Laredo, the nation’s busiest land port, saw its volume drop 2.8%, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline. Logistics executives attribute the slump to a cooling US economy and supply chains that are already saturated with goods, thanks to frontloading ahead of previous tariff deadlines.
“As much as companies would like to pull forward major inventories, there just isn’t enough slack in supply chains to make any major moves,” Jordan Dewart, president of Redwood Mexico, told the JoC.
Despite the flat volume, the value of the goods being transported continues to climb. Bilateral trade by truck rose 6.3% to $318 billion in the first half of 2025, suggesting that higher-value products are crossing the border.
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Businesses Scramble as De Minimis Exemption Officially Ends This Week
The long-standing de minimis rule, a critical US trade exemption that allows imports valued under $800 to enter the country duty-free, officially ends this Friday, August 29. The exemption has been the target of recent administrations on both sides of the political aisle, as government officials point to drugs, counterfeit goods, and other contraband entering the US via small packages.
US President Donald Trump signed an executive order earlier this year ending the de minimis exemption for imports from China. The proclamation also ordered government agencies to start phasing out de minimis for all other US trading partners. However, the exemption is now being terminated well ahead of its original 2027 sunset date, catching some importers by surprise.
From small sellers to major marketplaces, businesses of all types have relied on the de minimis exemption for cost-effective imports. Now the accelerated phaseout has left many unprepared. “They’re scrambling right now because they just thought (the elimination of de minimis) wouldn’t happen so fast,” Maggie Barnett, CEO of LVK Logistics, told Supply Chain Dive.
Previously duty-free imports will now be subject to all applicable fees, including the US reciprocal tariffs announced in April that were recently fully implemented. Retailers may be forced to pass on the costs, but experts warn that online shoppers accustomed to low prices could abandon their carts.
“When customers start seeing a tariff cost or a tariff charge in their cart, that’s a lot of times going to kill that deal,” Nick Baker of Kroll’s trade and customs practice was quoted as saying in Supply Chain Dive.
After Reclassification, New Standard Aims to End Surprise LTL Shipping Fees
Following recent revisions to the less-than-truckload (LTL) classification system, a new technical standard has been released to help businesses avoid unexpected charges. The new API (application programming interface) provides a standardized way for carriers to communicate potential changes much earlier in the shipping process.
LTL carriers are increasingly using advanced dimensioning equipment and scales at their terminals to reweigh and reclassify shipments after they have been picked up. This often results in a higher final price that businesses are unaware of until they receive the final invoice. The new API aims to make it easier for shippers to obtain weight and dimension data from carriers, and to do so immediately.
The API’s release comes just weeks after the long-awaited revisions to the National Motor Freight Classification (NMFC) system went into effect on July 19. Those changes, which reclassified over 2,000 products based on density, had caused major concern over rate uncertainty. However, most businesses haven’t yet reported significant price hikes.
Brian Thompson, chairman of the Digital LTL Council, the group behind the API, says that implementation of the NMFC revisions helped motivate the new tech standard. “We really wanted to get out in the forefront of those NMFC changes,” Thompson told the JoC.
The API is part of a broader initiative by the council to modernize the entire LTL shipping process. It follows the release of standards for electronic bills of lading and pickup requests, with another API for in-transit visibility expected later this year.
