This week:
- Following brief surge earlier in the month, Trans-Pacific container spot rates on the way back down
- White House seeks comment on expanding the scope of tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts
- Despite tariffs and trade uncertainty, cargo volumes remain strong at Port of LA throughout 2025
- In latest labor moves, Canadian postal workers drop overtime ban, halt unaddressed mail delivery
Trans-Pacific Shipping Rates Fall Again After Early September Price Hike
A brief spike in container spot rates on the Asia-US trade lane has ended. The surge at the beginning of this month was fueled by a general rate increase (GRI) and a series of blank sailings on the eastbound trans-Pacific, but industry insiders now say weakening demand is leading to falling rates.
“The (GRI) raised rates a few hundred dollars, but we can say now that rates are back to pre-September 1 levels,” James Caradonna, executive vice president of the forwarder M&R Spedag Group, told the Journal of Commerce (JoC) in a report published last week.
Chris Sur, executive vice president for ocean freight contract logistics at Unique Logistics International, echoed this sentiment. “The September 1 increase was successful…for a couple of weeks, but now it’s kind of going back,” Sur told the JoC.
Data from Platts showed the Asia-to-US West Coast spot rate at $2,500 per FEU, with the East Coast rate at $3,600 per FEU, as of last week. However, forwarders report that current market rates are already falling to between $1,700 and $1,800 for the West Coast and $2,700 for the East Coast, as carriers offer discounts on voyage-specific bookings to fill their ships.
One shipping consultant told the JoC that carriers managed to leverage a small pre-Golden Week booking surge and blank sailings to prevent spot rates from falling below their long-term contract levels. Despite this, the lack of a significant cargo backlog in Asia means the new rate floor is being tested.
In response, carriers are finding ways to manage capacity. Data from eeSea shows ocean liners plan to blank 9.7% of West Coast capacity and 19.9% of East Coast capacity in October to prevent rates from collapsing further.
Trump Admin Considers Expanding Scope of Tariffs on Metals and Auto Parts
The White House is re-evaluating the scope of some of its tariffs, with an eye toward adding products to the current levies on steel, aluminum, and auto parts. The Trump administration is also reviewing the list of goods from China that qualify for tariff exclusions, after previously eliminating the process for importers to request exemptions.
In a recent report by Supply Chain Dive, experts say these moves represent significant shifts in tariff policy that will likely result in higher costs for US importers.
According to federal notices, the administration will now accept public input on which items to add to the list of products subject to Section 232 national security tariffs. The new inclusion process would allow domestic producers to petition for an expansion of the duties. Adding tariffs to more imports is meant to promote domestic manufacturing. However, experts say the change has the potential to introduce significant uncertainty for importers, as new tariffs could be applied in the time between when companies place orders and when the products reach US shores.
The comment period for adding new products to steel and aluminum tariffs closes on September 29, while the process for auto parts duties begins on October 1.
Meanwhile, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) is conducting its regular review of exclusions for Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods. Stakeholders have until October 16 to comment on whether 178 product categories should remain exempt from the duties.
The USTR will evaluate each case based on factors like the availability of non-China sources and the overall impact on US interests.
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Despite Tariff Uncertainty, Cargo Volumes Remain High at Port of Los Angeles
Despite the uncertainty around tariffs that has weighed on US importers for most of the year, the nation’s busiest container port continues to see high cargo volumes.
The Port of Los Angeles handled nearly 958,400 TEUs in August, capping a record-breaking stretch that saw almost two million containers move through its terminals in just two months. However, Port Executive Director Gene Seroka predicts a slowdown in the coming months.
“I expect container volumes to ease through the rest of 2025, especially (when compared) against last year’s unusually high benchmarks,” Seroka said at a media briefing last week. He cited economic signals like slowing job growth and persistent inflation as factors making both importers and consumers “a bit more cautious” heading into the end of the year.
Canadian Postal Union Halts Direct Mail Delivery in Escalated Labor Action
The Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) has escalated its labor dispute with Canada Post by halting the delivery of unaddressed direct mail. The union shifted strategy after its previous overtime ban proved ineffective due to a sharp decline in parcel volumes, which negated the need for extra work hours.
The union’s new tactic targets Canada Post’s “Neighbourhood Mail” service, a lucrative and growing division that generated $421 million in revenue last year. In an email to Supply Chain Dive, John McClymont of the consulting firm Operational Innovations said the move is designed to have a “more definitive impact” on the carrier’s revenue to force it back to the bargaining table.
Negotiations between Canada Post and CUPW have stalled over issues such as wages and working conditions.
Canada Post contends that parcels and addressed mail are unaffected for now. Still, experts warn that CUPW’s latest move could be the start of escalating actions that lead to a full work stoppage by the union or a lockout by the carrier.
CUPW launched a strike during last year’s peak holiday season. Analysts say that the limited work stoppage had far-reaching impacts, making it more likely for shippers to seek alternative delivery options now.
“Anything that introduces risk or uncertainty…will cause people to look elsewhere,” McClymont said.
