Freight Market Update – January 2026

This Month:

• Ocean freight rates spiked following a January GRI but quickly retreated as carriers failed to secure bookings at higher levels.
• Overall shipping volumes remain soft year over year, even ahead of Chinese New Year.
• Carriers are expected to lower rates in the coming weeks rather than increase blank sailings before week 8.
• Emirates Shipping Line announced plans to upgrade its Sun Chief Express trans-Pacific service to a weekly rotation beginning June 2026.
• China–U.S. air cargo volumes have stabilized post-holiday, though capacity remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

Download the January 2026 Freight Market Update [PDF]

Market Overview

The global freight market began 2026 with a brief surge in ocean freight rates following a General Rate Increase (GRI). Rates climbed more than 20 percent in a single week, but the increase quickly unraveled as carriers faced resistance from the market and struggled to secure bookings at higher levels.

Despite this short-term volatility, overall cargo volumes remain lower year over year. Even as Chinese New Year approaches, demand has stayed soft, reflecting a cautious shipping environment across major trade lanes.

Capacity and Rate Trends

Carriers are unlikely to significantly increase blank sailings until approximately week 8, after most Chinese factories complete final production ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Rather than removing capacity, carriers are expected to reduce rates in the coming weeks to avoid sailing with excess space.

Any additional GRI attempts prior to Chinese New Year are expected to face strong pushback, given current demand conditions and available capacity.

Service Updates

Emirates Shipping Line (ESL) continues to expand its footprint in the trans-Pacific trade. The Sun Chief Express (SCX) service, launched in June 2025, provides a direct connection from Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam and Shekou, China to Seattle, Washington. This service marked ESL’s first direct entry into the U.S. market and offers inland connectivity to key U.S. destinations.

Looking ahead, ESL has announced plans to upgrade the Sun Chief Express from a fortnightly rotation to a weekly service beginning in June 2026. The enhanced service will call at Haiphong, Ho Chi Minh City, Shekou, and Seattle, with transit times remaining competitive at approximately 15 days from both Ho Chi Minh City and Shekou to Seattle.

To support the weekly schedule, ESL will deploy three additional vessels. Seattle will remain the primary U.S. gateway, with onward rail and truck connections to inland markets including Portland, Chicago, Kansas City, Columbus, Memphis, and St. Paul.

China–U.S. Air Cargo Market Review

The China–U.S. air cargo market is entering a transitional period, influenced by shifting trade policies and evolving demand patterns. After peaking in week 2 of the year, volumes have since stabilized, though market conditions remain increasingly complex.

With fewer than 15 days remaining before Chinese New Year factory closures, manufacturers and e-commerce exporters are accelerating production and shipments to meet delivery deadlines. Short-term market sentiment remains divided between shippers moving cargo early to mitigate potential tariff risks and others adopting a more cautious, wait-and-see approach.

Longer term, changes in global trade flows continue to reshape route planning and capacity allocation. Current China–U.S. flight volumes remain at approximately 60 percent of pre-pandemic levels, as airlines prioritize capacity deployment to Europe and the Middle East.

What This Means for Shippers

As the market moves through the early weeks of 2026, shippers should prepare for continued rate volatility and shifting capacity conditions, particularly in the lead-up to Chinese New Year. Proactive planning, early bookings, and close coordination with logistics partners will remain essential.

J.M. Rodgers works closely with customers to secure reliable capacity, manage transportation costs, and navigate changing market conditions across ocean, air, and inland services. Our team is available to provide tailored guidance and solutions to support your supply chain throughout 2026.

Contact J.M. Rodgers

For guidance on navigating current freight market conditions, contact J.M. Rodgers to discuss your transportation and supply chain needs.

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