Freight Market Update – July 2026
Transpacific rates remain elevated as equipment shortages, tariff-driven demand, and limited capacity continue to pressure ocean and air freight markets. See what shippers should expect throughout July.
This Month:
- Transpacific ocean freight rates remain near historically high levels after sharp increases since mid-May.
- Asia to U.S. West Coast spot rates are up 120%, while East Coast rates have increased 85% over the past six weeks.
- Space conditions are beginning to improve on some West Coast services, but East Coast, Gulf, and Pacific Northwest capacity remains tight.
- Severe equipment shortages continue across China and Southeast Asia, particularly for 40-foot containers.
- Transpacific air freight capacity remains constrained as tariff-driven demand and high-tech shipments keep rates elevated.
Download the July 2026 Freight Market Update [PDF]
Market Overview
Transpacific ocean freight rates reached a near-term ceiling in early July after climbing sharply throughout the previous six weeks. Spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast have increased 120% since mid-May, while East Coast rates have risen 85%.
Shippers continue to face pressure from an early peak season, equipment shortages, and aggressive front-loading ahead of late-July U.S. tariff deadlines. As the month progresses, rates appear more likely to hold steady or ease slightly than continue rising at the same pace.
Core Market Drivers
Several factors continue to shape the transpacific freight market.
Importers accelerated inventory flows ahead of the July 24 tariff decision and Section 301 deadlines, contributing to an estimated 15% month-over-month increase in inbound U.S. volumes.
Capacity also remains restricted. Analysts have reported approximately 30 blank sailings across a five-week period, although carriers have started deploying extra-loader vessels into the Los Angeles and Long Beach trade lanes to absorb peak demand.
At the same time, shortages of 40-foot containers persist across China and Southeast Asia. Suez Canal detours and continued Middle East routing risks are also limiting effective global fleet capacity.
Space and Capacity Conditions
Pacific Southwest
Space availability has stabilized across many China and Asia origins serving the Pacific Southwest. Additional sailings have provided some relief, although conditions continue to vary by origin and carrier.
Pacific Northwest, U.S. East Coast, and Gulf
Space remains tight across Pacific Northwest, U.S. East Coast, and Gulf services, particularly during the first half of July.
Rate relief may be more limited on East Coast and Gulf Coast trades because effective capacity remains constrained by Panama Canal draft restrictions. However, the removal of some carrier weight restrictions has improved conditions compared with June.
Carrier Network Changes
Ocean Network Express will no longer participate in several OCEAN Alliance transpacific loops.
ONE previously held slot agreements with CMA CGM, OOCL, and Evergreen across four Far East to U.S. West Coast services. These agreements concluded in Shanghai on July 6, 2026, following the final sailing of the CMA CGM TITAN on the CP1 loop.
The affected services include CP1, CP2, CP3, and CP4. Shippers using these services should review future routing options and confirm available capacity with their logistics providers.
Air Freight Market Update
The transpacific air freight market remains tight, supported by strong demand for AI hardware, semiconductors, high-tech components, and tariff-sensitive cargo.
Although passenger flight schedules have expanded modestly, belly-hold capacity is being absorbed quickly by high-priority freight. Dedicated freighter fleets also remain heavily booked, with load factors consistently above 90%.
Capacity improvements are more visible on intra-Asia and Asia to Europe routes, while Asia to U.S. lanes remain under pressure. Carriers continue to prioritize premium cargo and long-term contract customers, limiting spot-market access.
Air Freight Rate Trends
Global air cargo rates eased slightly due to lower jet fuel prices, but that relief has not translated meaningfully to transpacific lanes.
Spot rates remain elevated as importers continue advancing shipments ahead of the July 24 tariff deadline. Pricing also continues to vary significantly by lane and commodity, with high-tech and time-sensitive cargo commanding the highest premiums.
What This Means for Shippers
Ocean freight bookings should be secured at least three weeks in advance to improve the likelihood of obtaining equipment and space.
For air freight, shippers should secure uplift two to three weeks in advance, particularly for high-tech, premium, or tariff-sensitive cargo.
While rate increases may be slowing, capacity constraints, geopolitical uncertainty, and equipment shortages continue to create risk. Proactive planning and flexible routing remain essential.
Looking Ahead
The transpacific market may see flat premium pricing or modest rate relief during the second half of July, provided there are no major geopolitical disruptions.
However, East Coast and Gulf Coast services are likely to remain tighter than West Coast routes, while air freight capacity will continue to favor contracted and premium cargo.
J.M. Rodgers Co. will continue monitoring carrier advisories, equipment conditions, and market developments as the summer shipping season progresses.
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