Tariff Watch: USMCA Negotiations, Vietnam Investigations, and Refund Developments

Welcome to the inaugural edition of Tariff Watch, a new series from J.M. Rodgers designed to keep importers, manufacturers, and supply chain leaders on top of rapidly shifting US trade policies.

Tariff news in the last week of May was as busy as ever, with new Section 301 investigations, updates on historic tariff refunds, and more. Here’s what you need to know this week:

What’s New

• The USTR launches Section 301 investigation into Vietnam: On May 29, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer initiated the investigation into Vietnam’s intellectual property protection and enforcement practices. This follows Vietnam’s designation as a Priority Foreign Country in the USTR’s Special 301 Report published in April.
• The federal government announced reductions to Section 232 tariffs on Taiwanese imports: In a May 28 Federal Register notice, the USTR implemented the terms of a new Memorandum of Understanding, capping Section 232 tariffs on Taiwanese auto parts, timber, lumber, and wood derivative products at 15%. In addition, derivative Section 232 tariffs on Taiwanese aircraft components have been entirely removed, effective retroactively to May 1, 2026.
• A judge ordered CBP to address refunds on older IEEPA entries: On May 27, the US Court of International Trade (CIT) ordered Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to submit a brief explaining why the agency should not be forced to immediately refund invalidated IEEPA tariffs on entries that liquidated more than 90 days ago.
• The USTR stated that tariffs on USMCA countries will remain in place: Speaking at a Council on Foreign Relations event on May 26, USTR Greer confirmed the administration intends to maintain current tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada as the US begins negotiations to revamp the USMCA trade pact.
• CBP reported major progress on IEEPA tariff refunds: In a May 22 court filing, CBP announced it is on track to process roughly $85 billion in potential and certified refunds through the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries (CAPE) portal.

Who’s Impacted

These late May developments create both new risks and opportunities for a broad range of US industries, including:

• Automotive, aerospace, and furniture importers: Companies sourcing auto parts, aircraft components, and wood products from Taiwan are the immediate beneficiaries of the tariff reductions announced on May 28, which open the door to improved margins and potential duty recovery.
• Apparel, footwear, and tech companies sourcing from Vietnam: If the USTR’s Section 301 investigation finds that Vietnam’s IP practices harm US commerce, US businesses that rely on Vietnamese manufacturing hubs could suddenly face steep duties.
• Cross-border North American supply chains: News that there will be no relief from duties on imports s from Canada and Mexico was surely a disappointment to many American businesses. 
• Importers owed IEEPA refunds: Importers who paid the now-invalidated IEEPA tariffs but whose entries were liquidated more than 90 days ago may finally have a pathway to recover those funds, thanks to the CIT’s May 27 order.

What We’re Seeing

In this rapidly shifting trade environment, businesses must react fast to mitigate risks and seize new opportunities. Here’s how we see supply chain leaders react to this week’s news:

1. Looking for retroactive tariff relief: Businesses that import eligible auto parts, wood products, or aircraft components from Taiwan are checking whether their entries reflect the reduced or eliminated Section 232 duties. Because the rule is effective for goods entered on or after May 1, 2026, shipments made in May might be eligible for refunds or corrections.
2. Finding alternatives to Vietnam: Some companies that routinely import from Vietnam are considering alternative sourcing options in case the Section 301 investigation concludes that new tariffs are appropriate. 
3. Continuing to file CAPE declarations: Fikkiwubg CBP’s successful processing of $85 billion in refunds, businesses continue to submit eligible entries through the CAPE portal.
4. Preparing for prolonged North American tariffs: With the USMCA joint review approaching in July, tariff relief may be on the way for US businesses that source from Mexico and Canada. In the meantime, they’re adjusting their forecasts to account for continued tariffs on their North American trading partners.

What We’re Monitoring

The J.M. Rodgers compliance team is keeping a close watch on these developing situations:

• The CIT liquidated entry briefing: We are eagerly awaiting CBP’s response to the CIT’s order about IEEPA entries liquidated over 90 days ago. A ruling against CBP could unlock millions of dollars in previously inaccessible refunds for US importers.
• USMCA bilateral rounds: With the first official bilateral negotiating round between the US and Mexico taking place the week of May 25, we’re particularly interested in how aggressively the Trump administration plans to overhaul the trade agreement.
• The CAFC administrative stay: We continue to track the appeals process surrounding the controversial Section 122 tariffs. On May 12, the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit (CAFC) issued a stay temporarily suspending the CIT’s earlier ruling that the tariffs are unlawful. Therefore, the 10% baseline global tariff remains in effect for now.