Tariff Watch: Brazil 301 Finalized, Section 122 Expiration Week, and New Postal Duties

Welcome to the latest edition of Tariff Watch, the weekly series from J.M. Rodgers Co. that delivers quick hits on the latest in US trade policy. This week is shaping up to be one of the most consequential of 2026, with a new punitive tariff on South America taking effect on Wednesday and the Section 122 global surcharge set to expire on Friday, while sweeping changes to cross-border e-commerce are on the way.

With all that going on, there’s no time to waste. Let’s get into the critical news you need to know this week:

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What’s New

• The USTR finalized a 25% tariff on Brazil: On July 15, the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) concluded its Section 301 investigation into Brazil and announced it is imposing a 25% tariff on specific imports from the country, effective July 22. However, there are exemptions for several popular Brazilian products, including beef, orange juice, and aircraft parts.
• The Section 122 global surcharge enters its final days: The 10% global baseline tariff implemented by the Trump administration on February 24 is set to expire this Friday, July 24. The surcharge was imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which only allows for a 150-day window. Congress could act to extend the deadline, but such an action seems unlikely at this time.
• The de minimis exemption for postal shipments expires this week; Friday also marks the first day standard duties — including MFN, Section 232, and Section 301 tariffs — will apply to all shipments handled by the United States Postal Service (USPS). The de minimis exemption, which previously exempted goods valued at $800 or less from import duties, has been phased out by the Trump administration over the last year. The White House allowed USPS until July 24 to prepare to collect duties on millions of packages daily.

Who’s Impacted

This week’s intersecting stories mean nearly all US importers will be affected in one way or another:

• The general importing community: The imminent July 24 expiration of Section 122 means virtually every US importer is operating in a state of suspended animation. Without clear guidance on whether the 10% fee will simply vanish or be instantly replaced by a new tariff mechanism, forecasting Q3 landed costs is proving to be challenging.
• Importers of Brazilian goods: Companies sourcing non-exempt goods from Brazil, such as sugar, paper, steel, and agricultural machinery, will be hit with the new 25% duty starting Wednesday at 12:01 a.m.Eastern.
• B2C retailers and e-commerce shippers: The July 24 application of standard duties to postal shipments permanently alters the economics of direct-to-consumer cross-border trade.

What We’re Seeing

This week brings big changes, but many leaders are already reacting. Here’s how:

• Businesses are checking Brazilian HTS exemptions: The 25% tariff on Brazil hits on Wednesday, and proactive trade compliance teams are already scrutinizing their open purchase orders. They are working hard to ensure the recently revised HTS codes align with the carved-out exemptions and to clear pending shipments before the Wednesday deadline.
• Importers attempting to time their global customs entries: Many businesses are trying to strategically delay non-urgent customs clearances to take advantage of the Section 122 surcharge’s expiration on Friday. Many are parking goods in bonded warehouses or holding entries until this weekend, gambling that they can avoid the 10% fee if the administration allows the tariff to lapse without an immediate replacement.
• Retailers are overhauling their checkout technologies: Now that standard duties will apply to all postal shipments starting Friday, e-commerce brands are updating their online shopping carts and landed-cost calculators. They must ensure duties are accurately calculated and prepaid at checkout so US consumers aren’t hit with surprise bills upon delivery.

What We’re Monitoring

The J.M. Rodgers trade compliance team is keeping a close watch on the following developing situations and crucial updates to older stories:

• The end of Section 122 and potential replacements: Friday is undoubtedly the most anticipated day so far this year. We’re watching for any last-minute executive orders, USTR announcements, or CBP guidance that could provide clues about what will happen to imports on Saturday morning. Specifically, we’re monitoring whether the administration will attempt to replace the expiring surcharge with the proposed 10% to 12.5% forced-labor Section 301 tariffs on 99% of US imports.
• Phase 3 CAPE refunds: As we approach the late-July launch window for Phase 3 of the CAPE portal, which will process IEEPA refunds on older, liquidated entries, we’re keeping a close watch on the federal courts. With CBP strictly limiting Phase 3 refunds to active plaintiffs due to the DOJ’s appeal, the Court of International Trade will need to make new rulings to unlock CAPE refunds for the broader importing community.
• The USMCA Free Trade Commission review: Following the launch of the formal USMCA review on July 1, we’re looking for any signals that the US intends to renegotiate automotive rules of origin or labor enforcement mechanisms during the ongoing talks.

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Sources

• Notice of Action on Brazil’s Acts, Policies, and Practices, USTR.gov
• Trump’s Temporary Global Tariffs Are Set to Expire, Yahoo Finance
• Navigating CBP’s New International Mail Process, Troutman Pepper Locke