Freight Market Update – October 2026

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This Month:

• Transpacific ocean freight rates remain near multi-year highs despite a seasonal dip in demand during China’s Golden Week holiday.
• Carriers have announced capacity reductions of 12–15% across Asia–U.S. trade lanes for October and November.
• Typhoon-related congestion at major Asian ports continues to disrupt schedules and reduce reliability.
• Blank sailings and limited space are increasing booking lead times, with shippers advised to book at least two to three weeks in advance.
• Freight rates are expected to remain elevated into November and December as carriers continue managing capacity.

Download the October 2026 Freight Market Update [PDF]

Market Overview

The October 2026 Freight Market Update highlights continued pressure across transpacific ocean freight markets as elevated rates, capacity reductions, and operational disruptions create challenges for shippers.

Transpacific ocean freight rates have remained near multi-year highs, even as China’s Golden Week holiday brought a seasonal slowdown in demand. Carriers extended early October pricing, keeping China–U.S. rates relatively steady week over week.

However, available space has tightened significantly following the holiday. Longer booking lead times, reduced schedule reliability, and ongoing congestion are creating additional challenges for businesses moving cargo across the Pacific.

Operational Disruptions Continue Across Asian Ports

Typhoon-related port closures and vessel queues at Shanghai and Ningbo have contributed to significant delays across major Asian shipping hubs.

On-time performance has fallen to a three-year low, with multi-day backlogs continuing to disrupt vessel schedules. Congestion remains unresolved at several major ports, making it increasingly difficult for shippers to predict departure and arrival times.

These disruptions, combined with carrier capacity reductions, are contributing to tighter space availability and increased uncertainty across transpacific trade lanes.

Carrier Strategies and Blank Sailings

Carriers continue to manage available capacity in an effort to maintain elevated spot rates despite fluctuating demand.

For October and November, carriers have announced capacity reductions of approximately 12–15% across Asia–U.S. services, with blank sailings affecting both East and West Coast routes.

U.S. East Coast

Carriers are concentrating a significant portion of blank sailings on Asia–U.S. East Coast services, including the Empire, Amberjack, Emerald, and TP12 loops.

Panama Canal draft restrictions and ongoing congestion are contributing to these reductions, with approximately 8–10 blank sailings expected per month through November.

U.S. West Coast

Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance have announced approximately 5–7 blank sailings across October and November, primarily affecting routes from Shanghai and Ningbo to Los Angeles and Long Beach.

While carriers are selectively deploying additional vessels to support demand, cargo rollovers remain common, and space availability continues to fluctuate.

Space Availability and Booking Outlook

Space constraints are expected to continue through late October as carriers work through cargo backlogs following China’s Golden Week holiday.

Shippers are increasingly advised to secure bookings at least two to three weeks before their intended departure dates. However, even advance bookings may not fully eliminate the risk of rollovers or schedule changes.

Departure dates, terminal receiving windows, and transshipment connections remain subject to adjustment as carriers respond to congestion and changing operational conditions.

Containers delayed into new pricing periods may also face additional costs if future General Rate Increases (GRIs) take effect.

Freight Rate Outlook

Transpacific ocean freight rates are expected to remain near current levels into November and December, provided carriers continue controlling available capacity.

Even without a significant increase in shipping demand, ongoing capacity management could prevent meaningful rate reductions in the near term.

Improved port operations, reduced congestion, and greater schedule reliability will be important factors in determining whether freight costs begin to ease toward the end of the year.

What This Means for Shippers

With space remaining tight and carrier schedules subject to change, proactive planning will be increasingly important for businesses managing transpacific shipments.

Shippers should consider several strategies to reduce potential disruptions:

• Book early: Secure space at least two to three weeks ahead of planned departures whenever possible.
• Maintain routing flexibility: Consider alternative services and routings when primary options face congestion or capacity limitations.
• Monitor carrier updates: Stay informed about blank sailings, omitted port calls, and schedule adjustments.
• Allow additional lead time: Account for potential delays at origin ports, during transshipment, and upon arrival.
• Evaluate premium services: Consider guaranteed-loading options when shipment timelines are particularly sensitive.

These measures can help businesses better manage the operational uncertainty associated with current market conditions.

Looking Ahead

As the freight market moves toward the final months of 2026, capacity management and port congestion are expected to remain important factors influencing transpacific shipping conditions.

While demand may fluctuate, carrier blank sailings and ongoing operational disruptions could continue to support elevated rates and limit available space.

Shippers should closely monitor carrier schedules, maintain flexibility in their transportation plans, and prepare for potential rate adjustments as the market moves into November and December.

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For guidance on navigating current market conditions or to discuss your transportation strategy, contact the J.M. Rodgers team to explore tailored ocean, air, and inland logistics solutions.