This week:
- Ocean carriers announce their alternate plans if Tehran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz
- After surge in volumes and spot rates, analysts warn of a flat US trucking market to come
- With reciprocal tariff pause due to end, US West Coast ports brace for last-minute rush of imports
- National parcel woes set to end as DHL reaches tentative deal, CUPW to vote on Canada Post offers
Ocean Carriers Make Preparations for Potential Strait of Hormuz Closure
Following recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, major ocean carriers have issued statements saying they’re preparing to alter shipping routes and bypass key Persian Gulf ports amid threats from Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Multiple shipping companies issued advisories last week, reassuring customers that the safety of crews, ships, and cargo is their top priority as they monitor the escalating crisis.
“We are actively evaluating potential risks and stand ready to adjust our operations should conditions change,” a Hapag-Lloyd customer advisory said. “At present, our vessels continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz.”
The US attacks targeted three Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, marking a significant escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel. This followed a June 22 vote by Iran’s parliament to support closing the critical waterway, a decision that ultimately rests with the Supreme Leader.
As of Monday, the Strait of Hormuz remained open.
Meanwhile, Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, noted in a LinkedIn post that the immediate concern for shipping is not necessarily direct attacks, but the “risk itself is sufficient to cause a change in vessel deployment to reduce traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.”
If the strait were to close, supply chain experts agree there would be significant consequences for global markets. The energy sector would certainly be impacted, as over 20% of the world’s daily crude oil production — more than 17 million barrels a day — passes through the waterway.
Container shipping would also face severe disruption. The Strait of Hormuz handles 4% of the global container volume, much of which is destined for major hubs, such as Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which processed 15.5 million TEUs in 2024. A blockade would force ships to divert to other regional ports, likely causing congestion and delays.
After Early Peak Season, Analysts See Trouble Ahead for US Trucking Market
As shippers continued to frontload cargo ahead of higher US tariffs, spot rates and volumes for refrigerated and dry van volumes rose modestly in May, giving a boost to the US trucking market. However, industry analysts say that carriers still lack pricing power, which will likely result in a flat market in the months ahead.
The latest data from DAT Freight & Analytics showed a 3% increase in its dry van volume index and a 5% rise in reefer volumes in May compared to April.
Ken Adamo, DAT’s chief of analytics, described May as “an uneven and challenging month for carriers, brokers, and shippers.” Adamo said this is the result of multiple factors, including the annual Roadcheck inspection blitz, Memorial Day, and shippers adjusting imports in response to changing US tariffs.
In an interview with Trucking Dive, Dean Croke, principal analyst for DAT iQ, attributed the fluctuations to a shift in the traditional peak shipping season. Typically, imports peak in September in advance of the holiday shopping season. However, shippers have been importing goods at elevated levels since last September due to ongoing tariff concerns, and 2025’s peak season is actually underway now.
“The kicker is that once goods make it to their destined warehouses, volumes are expected to decline,” Croke said. He and other analysts say the peak season shift portends a flat trucking market for the rest of 2025, which will likely keep pricing power in the hands of shippers.
“If demand remains flat and uncertain…shippers are essentially sheltering in place,” Croke said.
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US West Coast Ports Brace for Brief Cargo Influx as Tariff Deadlines Loom
Ports along the US West Coast are anticipating a temporary surge in cargo over the next few weeks as importers race to get their goods into the country before the White House’s 90-day pause on its reciprocal tariff policy expires.
If it materializes as expected, the brief spike in activity will be a welcome change for the ports, which experienced a sluggish May and early June, according to industry stakeholders who spoke with the Journal of Commerce (JoC) last week.
Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California, told the JoC that the number of container ships scheduled to arrive at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is at its highest level since January 2025.
The Port of Los Angeles expected 138,519 TEUs to arrive last week. Projections show slight dips for this week and the next, with 124,713 TEUs and 101,003 TEUs, respectively. Meanwhile, the Port of Long Beach forecasted its imports to total 84,109 TEUs last week before surging to 125,286 TEUs this week and 116,947 TEUs the week of July 6.
For context, volumes exceeding 100,000 TEUs are considered a strong week for the ports. This increased activity follows a lackluster May, where Los Angeles and Long Beach averaged approximately 71,000 and 66,000 TEUs per week, respectively.
This rush on imports is driven by the approaching expiration of reprieves on higher tariff rates. The Trump administration’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause for most US trading partners is set to end on July 9, while similar relief for imports from China will expire on August 14.
Labor Disruptions Near End as DHL Reaches Deal and Canada Post Vote Looms
Labor issues that have disrupted parcel delivery service across Canada appear to be nearing an end, as DHL Express reached a tentative deal with its union, and the government is forcing a vote on Canada Post’s latest offers to its workers.
DHL Express Canada and Unifor — which represents over 2,100 DHL truck drivers, couriers, and warehouse staff in seven provinces — forged a tentative agreement last week to end a contract spat that had shut down the carrier’s parcel services across the country.
The labor dispute began on June 8 when DHL Express Canada locked out its Unifor-represented workers after failing to secure a new collective bargaining agreement. The situation escalated on June 20, when the company was compelled to halt all services due to a new Canadian federal law that prevents the use of replacement workers.
Meanwhile, the long-running contract talks between Canada Post and the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) may be resolved soon. Patty Hajdu, the nation’s Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Labour, has ordered the union to vote on two multi-year contract offers tendered by the national carrier.
Canada Post’s proposals, which it refers to as its “final offers,” were first issued on May 28 and have been rejected by the CUPW in statements to the media. However, Minister Hajdu has ordered the union to vote on the offers in an attempt to move the prolonged negotiations forward. Key issues include staffing for weekend deliveries and wage increases.
The CUPW hasn’t announced a date for the vote, but a message on its website asks members to update their email addresses with Canada Post by July 7. Union members will receive a PIN via email, which they can use to vote electronically or by phone.
