The Trans-Pacific freight market faces mounting volatility as new GRIs take effect and a proposed 100% U.S. import tariff on Chinese goods looms. Carriers are blanking 14% of capacity while pre-tariff bookings surge, creating port congestion and schedule disruptions. New U.S. port fees on Chinese vessels and China’s retaliatory measures add further complexity heading into Q4.
Carriers drove rates higher this month with GRIs up $800–$900/FEU, pushing Asia–USWC spot rates up nearly 21% week-over-week. Demand remains weak, with U.S. bookings down 20%, while Golden Week blank sailings and growing congestion at Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao are tightening space further.
Meanwhile, alliances are slashing October capacity, and the USTR extended Section 301 tariff exclusions through Nov 2025—offering importers some relief amid ongoing volatility.
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear two cases this November challenging the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling could reshape presidential tariff authority and may impact duties paid under trafficking and reciprocal tariff programs. Importers should continue to monitor developments while maintaining documentation for potential duty drawback opportunities.
The Transpacific shipping market remains soft, with spot rates down 3.3% and no peak season in sight. New U.S. tariffs, tropical storm delays in China, and slowing bookings are shaping the months ahead. Capacity utilization has dropped to its lowest since April, while a brief September surge is possible before China’s Golden Week shutdowns.
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