December demand is expected to be the lowest since mid-2023 as tariff uncertainty keeps imports muted and inventories remain well stocked from earlier front-loading. Carriers are managing capacity with blank sailings across PSW, PNW, and USEC lanes to support January GRIs, while congestion persists in key Asia ports and airfreight rates rise on strong e-commerce volumes.
Trans-Pacific rates fluctuate as GRIs, easing USWC rollovers, blank sailings, and new U.S.–China trade talks shape the November 2025 freight market.
The Trans-Pacific freight market faces mounting volatility as new GRIs take effect and a proposed 100% U.S. import tariff on Chinese goods looms. Carriers are blanking 14% of capacity while pre-tariff bookings surge, creating port congestion and schedule disruptions. New U.S. port fees on Chinese vessels and China’s retaliatory measures add further complexity heading into Q4.
The White House has announced new Section 232 tariffs on timber, lumber, and wood products, citing risks to U.S. mills, supply chains, and infrastructure needs. Tariffs range from 10% on softwood lumber to as high as 50% on cabinetry by 2026. Importantly, the proclamation confirms that duty drawback remains eligible, allowing importers who re-export qualifying products to recover up to 99% of duties paid.
Carriers drove rates higher this month with GRIs up $800–$900/FEU, pushing Asia–USWC spot rates up nearly 21% week-over-week. Demand remains weak, with U.S. bookings down 20%, while Golden Week blank sailings and growing congestion at Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao are tightening space further.
Meanwhile, alliances are slashing October capacity, and the USTR extended Section 301 tariff exclusions through Nov 2025—offering importers some relief amid ongoing volatility.
The U.S. Supreme Court will hear two cases this November challenging the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The ruling could reshape presidential tariff authority and may impact duties paid under trafficking and reciprocal tariff programs. Importers should continue to monitor developments while maintaining documentation for potential duty drawback opportunities.
The Transpacific shipping market remains soft, with spot rates down 3.3% and no peak season in sight. New U.S. tariffs, tropical storm delays in China, and slowing bookings are shaping the months ahead. Capacity utilization has dropped to its lowest since April, while a brief September surge is possible before China’s Golden Week shutdowns.
President Trump has imposed a new 25% IEEPA Russian Oil tariff on all goods from India effective August 27, 2025, with duty drawback still available for eligible re-exports and destroyed goods.
CBP has issued detailed guidance on the implementation of reciprocal tariffs under the Executive Order signed July 31.
White House Issues Executive Order to Implement New Reciprocal Tariff Structure On July 31, 2025, President Trump signed a new Executive Order that…
On July 27, 2025, the United States and the European Union announced a new trade agreement aimed at redefining tariff structures and deepening…
Two significant developments in U.S. trade policy emerged on July 22, 2025, with the announcement of a finalized trade deal with Japan and…
With the pause on sweeping U.S. global tariffs set to expire in less than two weeks, President Trump announced this past weekend that…
At this year’s AAEI conference, J.M. Rodgers’ Andrew Galloway and Sean Dunne hosted a rapid-fire panel discussion focused on duty drawback in today’s…
The ocean freight market has flipped from oversupply to a severe capacity crunch as Transpacific demand surges. With bookings up over 50% and new GRIs taking effect June 1, rates are climbing fast. A massive backlog in China, early peak season, and port congestion risks are creating major challenges for importers. This May 2025 update covers everything you need to know, including new carrier services, premium rate trends, and planning tips ahead of the August tariff deadline.
The United States and China have announced a new bilateral trade agreement following high-level negotiations in Geneva. This marks the first joint trade…
Starting April 9, 2025, the U.S. has imposed a significantly higher tariff on most imported goods from China. Under a new Executive Order…
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has reaffirmed that duty drawback is available on the new Reciprocal Tariffs imposed by Executive Order 14257,…
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has confirmed that duty drawback is available for the new reciprocal tariffs imposed under the Executive Order…
